My picks from two weeks ago did not go well at all, especially the upset picks. After going 2-3 that brings my record up to 10-5 heading into Week 12 with a full slate of ranked teams.
This is where the college football season really starts to get interesting and we can finally separate the contenders from the pretenders. We have to start with Oklahoma State.
5.#10 Baylor (8-1, 5-1) vs. #6 Oklahoma State (10-0, 7-0)
Oklahoma State stunned a lot of people two weeks ago when they took out TCU and probably ended their College Football Playoff hopes. They stumbled last week and almost let Iowa State pull off a repeat from what happened in 2011.
This is another game that promises to have plenty of points in the Big 12, the question is how legit are Oklahoma State? Their defense has complimented their offense extremely well, hopefully they keep their eye on the prize.
Baylor’s head coach Art Briles has raved about Freshman Jarrett Stidham. The problem is Baylor’s defense simply can’t keep up with their offense. Oklahoma’s balanced attack gave them issues at home and Oklahoma State poses similar problems with their duel threat quarterbacks at their disposal.
Oklahoma State has come too far and their defense has made too many strides for them to lose this game against the Baylor Bears. Jarrett Stidham is going to throw for a bunch of yards but I think Mason Randolph and J.W. Walsh are going to out play him.
The spread on this game is even, which turns it into a pick-em. As a result, it makes sense to go with the better defense and the team that has homefield advantage. Gimme the Cowboys in this one.
OKLAHOMA STATE 49 BAYLOR 42
4. #9 Michigan State (9-1, 5-1) vs.#3 Ohio State (10-0, 6-0)
This is the first time this season we get to see how good Ohio State really is. Michigan State looks bad because of their loss to Nebraska and it’s a shame that both teams weren’t undefeated going into this one. The Spartans have a huge opportunity to beat the Buckeyes and put them in a position to have a spot in the Big 1o title game.
I’m definitely surprised that Michigan State are 13 point underdogs in this one when they are more than capable of winning this game. J.T. Barrett will have to bounce back from his arrest and suspension to have success against a Spartans defense that allows 22 points per game.
Ohio State will be tested in the game for sure, but Urban Meyer is one of the best coaches in college football history. He has been in this position with his team, time and time again. J.T. Barrett is in command of the offense, Braxton Miller still gives this offense a different dynamic and Ezekiel Elliot is a beast.
The Buckeys defense also doesn’t get enough credit for being supremely talented. They’re led by Joey Bosa and are 9th in the country in total defense. They’re also 2nd in the nation in points allowed with 13.8. Connor Cook will have to an incredible performance for the Spartans to win this game. I think they keep it closer than people think but Ohio State is winning this game.
OHIO STATE 28 MICHIGAN STATE 17
3. #18 TCU (9-1, 6-1) vs. #7 Oklahoma (9-1, 6-1)
This is another huge showdown in the Big 12 but it won’t be nearly as fun if TCU QB Trevone Boykin unable to play. Oklahoma has been on fire since their loss to Texas, they’ve scored at least 44 points or more in each game since then. The Sooners can’t afford to look ahead to next week’s showdown with in-state rival Oklahoma State.
Oklahoma have big time players at the skill positions, especially Baker Mayfield who was dialed in against Baylor last week. Oklahoma controls their own destiny and two wins over these final two weeks would probably be enough to get them into the College Football Playoff over Notre Dame.
TCU’s Trevone Boykin will be a game time decision but even if he does play, it likely won’t be at the level that TCU needs him to play at. The bookies are probably waiting on Boykin’s status to release the spread for the game but I don’t think that’ll matter at all.
TCU’s defense was exposed by Oklahoma State and I think Oklahoma will do the same. That will set up a great showdown in Stillwater next weekend.
OKLAHOMA 40 TCU 24
2. #15 LSU (7-2, 4-2) vs. #22 Ole Miss (7-3, 4-3)
LSU are reeling after back to back losses in the SEC. In fact, both of these teams have fallen to Arkansas in back to back weeks. These teams are incredibly well matched and the SEC always finds a way to give us some close games. LSU can’t afford to lose three in a row or else this season becomes even more of a disappointment then it already has become.
Hugh Freeze and his guys have had the bye week to prepare for Leonard Fournette and they are at home. This is going to be a very physical game, and whoever can win the battle in the trenches will emerge victorious.
LSU are actually five and a half point underdogs and I think they’ll cover the spread and win this game. The only reason Ole Miss was able to beat Alabama this year was because they got off to an early lead which took Derrick Henry out of the game.
Henry still had a great game but he only had 23 carries when the Crimson Tide would have loved to get him more. If LSU can control the tempo of this game and get Fournette the ball, I think they can actually come back and win on the road despite how poor their away record is. I’ll take the Tigers.
LSU 28 OLE MISS 24
1. #24 USC (7-3, 5-2) vs. #23 Oregon (7-3, 5-2)
These are two teams in the Pac-12 that did not start off the season that well but have finally started to hit their stride. This matchup has plenty of title implications in the conference. Oregon is hoping for Stanford to lose to Cal in a rivalry game and if they beat the Trojans they’ll have the tiebreaker over Stanford.
USC have the tiebreaker over Utah and they can’t afford to slip up against the Ducks if they want a shot at the Rose Bowl. There’s a lot on the line here and it’ll likely come down to Cody Kessler and Vernon Adams Jr. to carry their team to victory.
USC still hasn’t been convincing since their win over Utah. They allowed Colorado and Arizona to keep it close and that’s something they can’t afford against Oregon. If there’s a time for USC offense to come alive, it’s right now.
The Ducks allow around 37 points per game, and if the Trojans defense stops Oregon then they’ll win this game. However, I don’t think they will. This game is at Autzen Stadium and Oregon are four and half point favorites. I think the Ducks get it done at home but USC covers the spread.