It’s safe to say that UFC 195 probably won’t live up to the hype that surrounded UFC 194 but that doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t watch this card.
The Welterweight championship is on the line and it features two of the most exciting fighters in the UFC. After going 2-3 with my picks at UFC 194 that bring my record to 10-8, let’s get into it.
WELTERWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP TITLE FIGHT
(C) “RUTHLESS” ROBBIE LAWLER VS. #4 CARLOS “THE NATURAL BORN KILLER” CONDIT
Carlos Condit has been patiently waiting for the last two years to get another title shot. Condit has proved time and time again that he is one of the elite and most dangerous fighters in the division. This knockout of Dong Hyun Kim shows you how good he is.
Condit won the interim title back in 2012 but then lost to Georges St. Pierre and Johny Hendricks in back-to-back fights. His opponent will be the champ Robbie Lawler, his evolution as a fighter to where he is now is simply incredible.
Lawler went from an average fighter in the division to the champion in just three years. Lawler has proven that he’s a legit champion, especially after this TKO of Rory MacDonald.
Lawler clearly has the guts and heart of a champion, every time the fight gets into the championship rounds (4, 5) he turns up the heat and gives it everything he has.
Both fighters are probably going to keep this fight standing which will make for a great fight. Condit will have plenty of chances to knockout Lawler but the thing is that Lawler can take an incredible amount of punishment.
I expect Robbie Lawler to push the pace as the fight goes on, he should be the more active fighter like he always is. However, Condit will be able to keep this fight close and it’ll end up being a five round slugfest. I’ll take Robbie Lawler to defend his title via split decision.
HEAVYWEIGHT TITLE ELIMINATOR FIGHT
#3 STIPE MIOCIC VS. #2 ANDREI “PITBULL” ARLOVSKI
Andrei Arlovski is only one fight away from earning his title shot with title holder Fabricio Werdum. Arlovski is on a six fight win streak, and he was able to keep his win streak going after defeating the legend, Frank Mir, via unanimous decision.
Standing in his way is Stipe Miocic, a former D-1 wrestler from Cleveland State. Miocic has mowed through the division with his striking ability as well, he’s only lost two fights in the octagon and he’s coming off of an impressive TKO of Mark Hunt.
If this fight goes to the ground, then Miocic is definitely going to have the advantage.
I’ve already picked against Andrei Arlovski once, and I won’t do it again. Miocic is a dangerous opponent and is fully capable of beating Arlovski while standing or on the ground. Miocic hasn’t exactly fought the cream of the crop of the division except for Junior Dos Santos and he lost that fight.
This is a step up in competition for Miocic and I’m not sure he’ll be ready for what Andrei Arlovski has to offer. Arlovski should win this fight via KO/TKO.
LORENZ “THE MONSOON” LARKIN VS. ALBERT “EINSTEIN” TUMENOV
Lorenz Larkin was originally in the middleweight division before he lost three fights in the row. Then Larkin made the move down to welterweight and he’s won his first two fights in the division via TKO. Larkin is a lethal striker who has been fighting for quite some time.
His opponent is Albert Tumenov, who is 4-1 since entering the UFC. Tumenov is vicious in his own right. The Russian absolutely demolished Alan Jouban in this fight.
I do not see this fight going to the judges scorecard at all.
Lorenz Larkin is a striker and has proven that he can take down opponents as well. However, I think Tumenov is the better standup fighter.
He may not be as accurate as Larkin in but he looks a lot faster and more explosive. This fight should be a toss up and Larkin can knockout Tumenov, but I think the Russian will win this fight via KO/TKO.
DIEGO “DB” BRANDAO VS. BRIAN “T-CITY” ORTEGA”
Diego Brandao is a former Ultimate Fighter winner who has won his last two fights via TKO. The Brazilian has rebounded nicely after losing consecutive fights to Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor. Brandao is a poor man’s Jose Aldo. He can be a savage striker when given the opportunity.
His opponent is Brian Ortega, a young fighter who has yet to lose a fight. Ortega has proven to be more of a submission specialist and jiu-jitsu expert, he hasn’t lost a fight since entering the UFC. This should be a very good test for Brian Ortega.
Brian Ortega is taking a serious step up in competition by facing a guy like Diego Brandao. All Brazilians usually have a good jiu-jitsu base to begin with so if the fight goes to the ground, Brandao should be fine.
The question is how well can Ortega defend himself while standing because if he can’t, Brandao will pick him apart. I don’t think Brandao will have much trouble in this fight, he should win via KO/TKO.
ABEL “KILLA” TRUJILLO VS. TONY SIMS
Abel Trujillo has been a veteran of the UFC for almost three years now and his status with the UFC is in jeopardy after having lost two straight fights. Another loss to the unheralded Tony Sims could be the one that gets him cut from the UFC.
Tony Sims is an experienced boxer who has the ability to knockout Trujillo is he leaves himself exposed. However, this seems like a great chance for Abel Trujillo to get back on track in the UFC.
I’m don’t think Tony Sims is experienced enough in the UFC to be able to win this fight. The only way he does is if Trujillo makes any kind of mistake.
Trujillo has enough power to take out Sims but Sims has a boxing background which will make him much tougher to hit. This might be the most boring fight on the card, with Trujillo winning via unanimous decision.